While we expected exceptional real estate in the spring, the pandemic decided otherwise. To believe that we can no longer project ourselves into a context of health crisis. So what are the outlook experts from MeilleursAgents?
In the coming months, a drop of the price is to be expected in the area. However, the decline will remain moderate, which was the case during previous pandemics. In 2003, the epidemic of SRAS has slightly impacted the price, with a decline of 1.6% in Hong Kong in the face of volumes which fell by 70%.
At least, the repercussions of this shock are not likely to spread throughout the territory. So far, the markets benefit from a significant reserve of request of the part of the buyers. These are less impacted financially, the vast majority of whom are permanent executives who have the possibility of continuing their activity in telework during confinement. This allowed them to resist compared to the others. Apparently, the large metropolises French are not not concerned by the hindsight of the price.
Since the crisis of covid-19 has impacted all areas, the estate market was not spared. Faced with the current situation, it is impossible to predict the future regarding the evolution of the epidemic, as well as the uncertainties which weigh on the global economy from the country. It is therefore difficult to define with accuracy at the moment the long-term impact of this health crisis which is not ready to be stamped out. Thus, his impact remains unclear as well on the transactions that on the price.
The only certainty of the moment is undoubtedly, the dynamism of market observed for several weeks. Furthermore, this led us to see in 2020, a future believed that was exceptional for real estate which is relegated to the rank of the past.
In the event of uncertainty, the experts at Meilleurs Agents are counting on two possible scenarios. To the extent that the government manages to bring the pandemic under control before the summer, a rapid exit cannot be ruled out. In this context, all the measures taken by governments and by the European Central Bank lead us to believe that the estate market will be able to resume without too much clashes to the back to school.
Which was not the case with the 2009 crisis where the engine of the economy was about to explode, with a banking system quite worrying. At least the banks are in good health today. In other words, the economy is at the stop, and this, in the best case scenario. She could thus to restart without too many after-effects if the situation evolves in the common sense. Since the start of the crisis, various budgetary and fiscal stimulus measures have been put in place in order to boost the economy as it emerges from the pandemic. Announcements that must reduce the loss of income of the French quite naturally, and dispel their fears. À cela s’ajoute le plan d’urgence lancé par la BCE qui vise à soutenir les banks to maintain the tap credit opened with rate relatively down. Enough to encourage French has contract of the credits, as they have been doing since 2015. From an overall point of view, the real estate market is not struggling to recover at the end of 2020, which will also be supported by the partial postponement from some projects. Although these were on hold in the spring with the new wave of the epidemic. This would be the best scenario according to the Best Agents scientific team.
However, another scenario may emerge on the horizon and continue in the long term. A situation which could largely impact the French economy which will be exposed to three risks of different natures. First of all, the reappearance of the virus cannot be ruled out with the variants, which would constrain the government to establish news measures of lockdown. The next threat that weighs would be a new recession, Then financial crisis. In a context where the health crisis was expected to last, a new peak in the fall or spring will only make the situation worse. With episodes of confinement increasing, the prospect of a recovery will fade. In addition to this, several sectors of the economy are currently in difficulty. In fact, the measures announced may not be enough to be sufficiently effective in order to brake the paralysis of country which indeed affects the administrations.
The small enterprises will be most affected by the bankruptcy, hence the implementation unemployment many employees, thus leading the economy French at the recession. Despite the efforts made by central banks, the covid-19 crisis is testing all financial markets, without exception. We are then very likely to find ourselves in a similar situation has 2008 where the banks were in incapacity of finance the real economy, including the market of real estate. If these risks were to arise shape fully or partially, the hypothesis of a exit crisis would fly away, because the exit from the tunnel is still far away. Consequently, we can expect a withdrawal phase qui pourrait s’étaler sur plusieurs années.
